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By Nigerian journalist Michelle Agoh and Filipinos journalist Paul Matangcas. First published in The New Lens.
Nigeria and the Philippines, while located on separate continents, share a rich bilateral and diplomatic relationship dating back to 1962. The two countries have been strong contributors to socio-economic development in West Africa and Southeast Asia respectively. In 2023, Nigeria exported goods valued at US$ 73.1 million to the Philippines and imported products worth US$ 9.55 million.
More significantly and recently, both Nigeria and the Philippines are experiencing evolving economic relationships with China. Both countries exhibit the duality of political and investment relations with Beijing. Nigeria exemplifies the multifaceted engagement through transformative projects like the Abuja-Kaduna and Lagos-Ibadan rail lines, which highlight the tangible benefits of incoming investments. Similarly, the Philippines faces its own challenges with China in Southeast Asia, as it defends its maritime claims and strives for diplomatic stability.
In recent years, they have undergone political shifts with the election of new leaders—Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Nigeria and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in the Philippines—indicating potential new directions in their respective relations with China.
Geopolitical tensions and changing political leaders can affect relationships with China. But what does this mean for China-funded projects in Nigeria and the Philippines? And what can we expect in the future?
As the sun sets on the horizons of the Abuja-Kaduna railway, Ndudi Okunzuwa embarks on her first train ride in Nigeria as a 23-year-old National Youth Service Corps worker living in Abuja. For her, this is not merely a commute but the fulfillment of a dream—visiting Northern Nigeria.
Her father went to university in Zaria, Kaduna and ever since, she has been curious to explore Northern culture. For her, the train symbolizes a nation in motion where the promise of modernity is felt by everyday Nigerians.
Arriving at Iju train station in Abuja, Ndudi encounters a digital upgrade to her journey—the Nigeria Railway Corporation App. Downloading it, she books her ticket using her National Identification Number. Paying N6500 (US$ 8) for a business class ticket. She enters the waiting area for her 9:00 AM ride, finding unexpected commotion. Confused by the crowded waiting area, Ndudi strikes up a conversation with seasoned traveler Aminu Shuni. He explains the rush, "tomorrow is salah (Id el Kabir); people are heading to spend the short holiday with their loved ones".
The conversation unfolds smoothly, revealing the shared experiences of seasoned commuters and curious first-timers. Aminu had stopped driving from Abuja to Kaduna since the rail line was commissioned for use five years ago. To him, it’s goodbye to bad roads and the unnecessary delays, but he misses the adventure of tasting the numerous varieties of roadside food when he drives.
Utilizing an initial loan of US$ 500 million and securing an additional US$ 1.3 billion in borrowings from China, Nigeria managed to undertake the construction of the 186-kilometer Abuja-Kaduna and the 156-kilometer Lagos-Ibadan rail projects, completed in 2016 and 2021 respectively. However, in 2020, confusion spread in Nigerian politics and the media over a misunderstanding about what the sovereign immunity clause means which is said to be included in most standard Chinese agreements. It is meant to prevent countries from raising sovereign immunity as a defense in case of any legal dispute. This led to more state investigations into the railway loan.
The former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi debunked and stated that, “ No country will sign away its sovereignty. What you do is, you give a sovereign guarantee; and I’m ashamed of those who interpret it the wrong way.”
The minister added that US$150 million had been repaid out of the US$500 million borrowed for the Abuja-Kaduna rail project. As of June 2023, data from the Debt Management Office shows Nigeria’s total borrowing from China stood at US$ 4.73 billion.
After a 15-minute delay was announced, Ndudi boarded and was captivated. It seemed too good to be true. The train looked new and clean, as though just commissioned. She found her seat in the executive two-seater, fully air-conditioned coach, and brought out her phone in excitement to record the three-hour ride to Rigasa.
Ndudi imagined how great it would be if every Nigerian could travel to their desired destination via rail. Aminu has been anticipating the completion of the Kaduna - Kano rail since 2022. Unfortunately, it has seen several delays. Should the project be completed, he would be relieved from the burden of spending money on flight tickets from Kaduna to Kano.
The delayed Kano-Kaduna rail project was awarded in 2021 to the China Civil and Engineering Construction Company (CCECC). In April 2023, the Nigerian senate announced China Development Bank (CDB) as the new financier for the US$973.5 million modernization project after China Exim Bank backed off.
In September 2023, the project coordinator of China Civil and Engineering Construction Company, Mark Zoe said the project had reached a 22.6 percent level of completion.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, passenger revenue reported a 2.64% decrease, dropping from N4.55 billion in 2022 to N4.43 billion. Conversely, cargo volume and revenue surged by 102.04% and 144.32% respectively compared to 2022.
Beyond the immediate experiences, Ndudi's journey shows a nation desperate for infrastructural development. Her story mirrors the broader tale of Nigeria's evolving landscape, shaped by partnerships and challenges, particularly with China.
Patrick Edgar recalls dividing his life between two cities when he worked as an engineer in the Island Garden City of Samal, despite only living in nearby Davao City.
But despite the short distance, the commute with the seldom passing barge was too much of a hassle. “Despite the additional costs, I opted to live in Samal away from my family,” he says.
When the 25-year-old heard about the Samal Island-Davao City Connector (SIDC) project, also known as the Davao-Samal Bridge, he didn’t think much of it. He believed the idea had lingered for too long, thinking: “I thought it would remain just an idea forever.”
For him, a bridge between the two cities would ease the accessibility of travel because a barge only operated at certain times and slows down overall movement. This would also boost tourism and economic growth since Samal is a getaway destination known for its beaches and resorts.
On October 27, 2022, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. led the groundbreaking of the bridge. This project, expected to take around 5 years to complete, aims for a two-way four-lane 3.86-km bridge in the southern corridor, connecting Samal Island to Davao City across the Pakiputan Strait.
Yet constant bumps in development have hounded the project, which has received strong opposition from environmentalists. A recent report revealed that the bridge threatens the biodiversity of Paradise Reef. Marine biologists, who describe this reef “as the last remaining rich natural coral reef in Samal Island,” fear the irreparable damage that this project might cause. They pressed for the realignment of the current design to prevent environmental damage.
Engineering and biodiversity concerns are only a fraction of the larger geopolitical tensions beset by China and the Philippines.
In 2016, the Philippines won a landmark case in The Hague against China's claim in the South China Sea. However, Beijing continues to reject the decision.
The current Marcos administration remains resolute in defending the Philippines' sovereignty, especially in light of recent maritime collisions and reports of harassment against Filipino fishermen.
On the other hand, this year marks over seven decades since the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the Philippines and the United States. The alliance between the two countries is more significant than ever amidst escalating maritime disputes.
The Philippines is prioritizing the strengthening of security ties with its allies and the continuation of the “Balikatan” or joint military exercises to deter further aggression. President Marcos reiterated in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the recent provocations towards the country's “vessels and personnel…have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation's sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction.”
Escalating tensions have prompted calls for the Philippines to drop China-backed projects in the country. Terry Ridon, convener of public policy think tank InfrawatchPH, stated in an interview that “canceling these projects is a definitive way to assert our national interests and sovereignty. It sends a strong signal to Beijing that we are serious about defending our sovereignty.”
In 2023 the Department of Transportation (DOTr) announced dropping three China-backed railway projects. These include the US$ 640 million Mindanao Railway Project (MRP), the US$ 2.5 billion South Long Haul project in Bicol, and the US$ 889 million Subic-Clark Railway project (SCRP).
According to DOTr Secretary Jaime Bautista in a radio interview, the three projects won’t be funded by the Chinese government anymore as the country cannot wait forever in what seems like a lack of interest from China.
Philippine officials, however, made no mention that the withdrawal from these projects was caused by the escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
As for growing doubt on the continuity of the SIDC project, Arturo Milan, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board Member for Regional Development-Private Sector Representative for Mindanao, told reporters in a press conference that “although we still have some road right-of-way issues…it is still a go. In fact, the Department of Public and Highways-Davao Region (DPWH-Davao) team had already conducted soil tests in the area.”
In a document sent by the Chinese Embassy dated December 2023 to The News Lens International, infrastructure projects between China and the Philippines have yielded favorable results “with nearly 40 projects carried out in recent years, 18 of which have now been completed.”
This includes the US$ 409 million SIDC project, which would significantly help in “reducing the transportation time and enhancing internal mobility and external linkage to support the economic and tourist growth potential of the local region.”
Amidst these pronouncements and the rising call for world order among many onlookers, especially in today’s current geopolitical climate, the future of Philippine-China relations remains unclear despite the inextricable link that binds these two countries together.
As Nigeria and the Philippines navigate their relationships with China, the experiences of these countries reflect a combination of opportunities, challenges, and diplomatic efforts.
Both nations strive to benefit from global partnerships while protecting their sovereignty and interests. Yet their stories are emblematic of a broader trend among countries working to balance collaboration with safeguarding national priorities.
However, regardless of what happens in the near future, one thing’s for sure: the world will continue to watch closely.
